What the market is paying

149 open contracts across 20 events on Kalshi, a US-regulated exchange, plus 2 rate-related markets on Polymarket. Read 2026-09-08.

A price is not a probability, and not a forecast. It is the last amount somebody paid for a contract that pays $1 if the thing happens. It carries the trader's fees, their appetite for risk and whatever they know; thin markets move on a single order. These are shown because they are a real, observable number — not because they are right.

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting?

11 contracts · settles 16 September 2026

• Above 3.50% 99%
• Above 3.25% 99%
• Above 3.00% 99%
• Above 2.75% 99%
• Above 3.75% 55%
• Above 4.00% 2%
• Above 5.25% 1%
• Above 5.00% 1%
• Above 4.75% 1%
• Above 4.50% 1%
• Above 4.25% 1%

Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their September 2026 meeting?

5 contracts · settles 16 September 2026

• Hike 25bps 52%
• Fed maintains rate 46%
• Hike >25bps 1%
• Cut >25bps 1%
• Cut 25bps 1%

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.25% following the Fed's Oct 28, 2026 meeting?

11 contracts · settles 28 October 2026

• Above 3.25% 99%
• Above 3.00% 99%
• Above 2.75% 99%
• Above 3.50% 97%
• Above 3.75% 61%
• Above 4.00% 9%
• Above 5.25% 1%
• Above 5.00% 1%
• Above 4.75% 1%
• Above 4.50% 1%
• Above 4.25% 1%

Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their October 2026 meeting?

5 contracts · settles 28 October 2026

• Fed maintains rate 68%
• Hike 25bps 28%
• Cut 25bps 5%
• Hike >25bps 2%
• Cut >25bps 2%

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.75% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?

11 contracts · settles 9 December 2026

• Above 2.75% 99%
• Above 3.00% 98%
• Above 3.25% 97%
• Above 3.50% 93%
• Above 3.75% 76%
• Above 4.00% 36%
• Above 4.25% 7%
• Above 5.00% 2%
• Above 5.25% 1%
• Above 4.75% 1%
• Above 4.50% 1%

Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their December 2026 meeting?

5 contracts · settles 9 December 2026

• Fed maintains rate 48%
• Hike 25bps 43%
• Cut 25bps 7%
• Hike >25bps 2%
• Cut >25bps 2%

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 0.75% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?

18 contracts · settles 27 January 2027

• Above 0.75% 98%
• Above 0.00% 98%
• Above 1.50% 97%
• Above 1.25% 97%
• Above 1.00% 97%
• Above 0.25% 97%
• Above 2.00% 96%
• Above 0.50% 96%
• Above 2.50% 95%
• Above 1.75% 95%
• Above 3.00% 94%
• Above 2.75% 94%

Showing the 12 highest-priced of 18.

Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their January 2027 meeting?

5 contracts · settles 27 January 2027

• Fed maintains rate 56%
• Hike 25bps 23%
• Cut 25bps 14%
• Cut >25bps 5%
• Hike >25bps 3%

Will there be a recession in 2026?

1 contracts · settles 31 January 2027

• Starts 6%

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 0.25% following the Fed's Mar 17, 2027 meeting?

18 contracts · settles 17 March 2027

• Above 0.25% 99%
• Above 0.00% 99%
• Above 1.25% 97%
• Above 2.25% 96%
• Above 2.00% 96%
• Above 1.75% 96%
• Above 1.00% 96%
• Above 0.75% 96%
• Above 0.50% 96%
• Above 2.50% 95%
• Above 1.50% 95%
• Above 2.75% 93%

Showing the 12 highest-priced of 18.

Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their March 2027 meeting?

5 contracts · settles 17 March 2027

• Fed maintains rate 72%
• Hike 25bps 18%
• Cut 25bps 8%
• Hike >25bps 3%
• Cut >25bps 2%

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 0.50% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting?

18 contracts · settles 28 April 2027

• Above 0.50% 99%
• Above 0.25% 99%
• Above 0.00% 99%
• Above 0.75% 97%
• Above 1.50% 95%
• Above 1.00% 89%
• Above 2.25% 79%
• Above 1.25% 79%
• Above 2.00% 70%
• Above 1.75% 69%
• Above 3.50% 68%
• Above 2.50% 68%

Showing the 12 highest-priced of 18.

Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their April 2027 meeting?

5 contracts · settles 28 April 2027

• Fed maintains rate 60%
• Cut 25bps 28%
• Hike 25bps 9%
• Cut >25bps 5%
• Hike >25bps 3%

Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their June 2027 meeting?

5 contracts · settles 9 June 2027

• Fed maintains rate 62%
• Cut >25bps 28%
• Hike >25bps 8%
• Cut 25bps 7%
• Hike 25bps 5%

Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their July 2027 meeting?

5 contracts · settles 28 July 2027

• Fed maintains rate 78%
• Cut 25bps 10%
• Hike 25bps 7%
• Cut >25bps 4%
• Hike >25bps 2%

Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their September 2027 meeting?

5 contracts · settles 15 September 2027

• Fed maintains rate 63%
• Cut 25bps 24%
• Hike 25bps 8%
• Hike >25bps 7%
• Cut >25bps 5%

Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their October 2027 meeting?

5 contracts · settles 27 October 2027

• Fed maintains rate 54%
• Hike >25bps 16%
• Cut 25bps 11%
• Cut >25bps 8%
• Hike 25bps 3%

Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their December 2027 meeting?

5 contracts · settles 8 December 2027

• Fed maintains rate 57%
• Hike >25bps 9%
• Hike 25bps 9%
• Cut >25bps 9%
• Cut 25bps 9%

Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their January 2028 meeting?

5 contracts · settles 26 January 2028

• Fed maintains rate 64%
• Hike >25bps 20%
• Hike 25bps 19%
• Cut 25bps 16%
• Cut >25bps 5%

Will there be a recession in 2027?

1 contracts · settles 31 January 2028

• Yes 24%

Polymarket

• Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? 1%
• Will Tsao Erh-chang win the next Lienchiang County Magistrate election? 0%