What is real here, and what is not
This site publishes United States interest rates and the open prices of prediction markets on where they go. It sells nothing, takes no positions, and is not investment advice.
Where the rates come from
Every rate is drawn from FRED, the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis's economic database, through its public CSV endpoint — which needs no key, which is why this pipeline cannot quietly break when a key expires. 214,270 observations across 18 series, the earliest from 1953, read on 8 September 2026.
FRED writes . for a day with no observation — a holiday, or a series that had not
started. Those are dropped, never carried forward and never interpolated. A gap in a line here is a
gap in the record.
The thing that is missing
There is no current municipal yield on this site, because there is no free public feed of one. The municipal series it does carry — the Bond Buyer 20-Bond GO Index — is real, runs from 1953, and was discontinued on 6 October 2016. It is drawn to that date and stops there. No line is extended, no current figure is inferred, and the municipal page leads with the discontinuation rather than burying it. The series in full.
Monthly means the last observation, not an average
The long history chart is monthly because seventy years of daily closes is more points than a screen can carry. Each monthly point is the last real observation of that month. It is never a mean: an average of a rate is a number that was never quoted to anybody, and putting it on a chart labelled with a date makes it look like it was.
Prediction-market prices are prices
The market pages show the last traded price of a contract that pays $1 if its statement turns out true. It is tempting to read 73 ¢ as "73% likely" and the exchanges encourage it, but the price also carries fees, the cost of tying up money until settlement, and how badly somebody wanted out. Thin markets move on one order. They are published here because they are real, observable and dated — not because they are correct.
How the charts are built
Every chart is drawn on the server as plain SVG, so the page is complete before any script runs and works with JavaScript off. Colours come from a validated categorical palette used in its documented order, capped at four series; every series is labelled at its own end so colour is never the only thing telling them apart, and every figure is followed by the same numbers as a table.
What this is not
- Not advice. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell anything.
- Not a quote. These are published statistical series, not executable prices.
- Not affiliated with FRED, the Federal Reserve, Kalshi, Polymarket, or The Bond Buyer. Their names appear to say where a number came from.
- Not complete. It carries what is publicly available without a key. That is a real limit, and the municipal gap is the sharpest example of it.